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The research by John Sterman finds that the so-called commodity cycles arise in many commodity markets. [5] For example, price and production cycles in markets of hog, cattle and copper span 4 years, 10–12 years and 8–10 years each in average respectively.
The trend-cycle component can just be referred to as the "trend" component, even though it may contain cyclical behavior. [3] For example, a seasonal decomposition of time series by Loess (STL) [4] plot decomposes a time series into seasonal, trend and irregular components using loess and plots the components separately, whereby the cyclical ...
The HP filter identifies the longer-term fluctuations as part of the growth trend while classifying the more jumpy fluctuations as part of the cyclical component. FIGURE 2. Observe the difference between this growth component and the jerkier data. Economists refer to these cyclical movements about the trend as business cycles. Figure 3 ...
Unemployment is an example of a countercyclical variable. [4] Similarly, business failures and stock market prices tend to be countercyclical. In finance, an asset that tends to do well while the economy as a whole is doing poorly is referred to as countercyclical, and could be for example a business or a financial instrument whose value is ...
Iterative design has long been used in engineering fields. One example is the plan–do–check–act cycle implemented in the 1960s. Most New product development or existing product improvement programs have a checking loop which is used for iterative purposes.
The cyclic model of succession was proposed in 1947 by British ecologist Alexander Watt.In a seminal paper on vegetation patterns in grass, heath, and bog communities, [4] Watt describes the plant community is a regenerating entity consisting of a "space-time mosaic" of species, whose cyclic behavior can be characterized by patch dynamics.
The technology life cycle (TLC) describes the commercial gain of a product through the expense of research and development phase, and the financial return during its "vital life". Some technologies, such as steel, paper or cement manufacturing, have a long lifespan (with minor variations in technology incorporated with time) while in other ...
Graham and Dodd noted one-year earnings were too volatile to offer a good idea of a firm's true earning power. In a 1988 paper [5] economists John Y. Campbell and Robert Shiller concluded that "a long moving average of real earnings helps to forecast future real dividends" which in turn are correlated with returns on stocks. The idea is to take ...