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In probability theory, conditional probability is a measure of the probability of an event occurring, given that another event (by assumption, presumption, assertion or evidence) is already known to have occurred. [1] This particular method relies on event A occurring with some sort of relationship with another event B.
Conditional probabilities, conditional expectations, and conditional probability distributions are treated on three levels: discrete probabilities, probability density functions, and measure theory. Conditioning leads to a non-random result if the condition is completely specified; otherwise, if the condition is left random, the result of ...
Given , the Radon-Nikodym theorem implies that there is [3] a -measurable random variable ():, called the conditional probability, such that () = for every , and such a random variable is uniquely defined up to sets of probability zero. A conditional probability is called regular if () is a probability measure on (,) for all a.e.
Under specious pressure from Fisher, Barnard retracted his test in a published paper, [8] however many researchers prefer Barnard’s exact test over Fisher's exact test for analyzing 2 × 2 contingency tables, [9] since its statistics are more powerful for the vast majority of experimental designs, whereas Fisher’s exact test statistics are conservative, meaning the significance shown by ...
Probabilistic causation is a concept in a group of philosophical theories that aim to characterize the relationship between cause and effect using the tools of probability theory. The central idea behind these theories is that causes raise the probabilities of their effects, all else being equal.
Bayesian confirmation theory provides a model of confirmation based on the principle of conditionalization. [6] [18] A piece of evidence confirms a theory if the conditional probability of that theory relative to the evidence is higher than the unconditional probability of the theory by itself. [18]
This rule allows one to express a joint probability in terms of only conditional probabilities. [4] The rule is notably used in the context of discrete stochastic processes and in applications, e.g. the study of Bayesian networks, which describe a probability distribution in terms of conditional probabilities.
The title comes from the contemporary use of the phrase "doctrine of chances" to mean the theory of probability, which had been introduced via the title of a book by Abraham de Moivre. Contemporary reprints of the essay carry a more specific and significant title: A Method of Calculating the Exact Probability of All Conclusions Founded on ...