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International affairs columnist Renard Sexton began the series with an analysis of polling leading up to the election; [538 25] then posts by Silver, Andrew Gelman and Sexton analyzed the reported returns and political implications. [538 26] FiveThirtyEight covered the November 3, 2009, elections in the United States in detail.
Good news, polling fans: 538 now has polling averages for the new presidential matchup between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. As of Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern, our ...
ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls 47.1% to Trump 44.4% compared to one week ago - Harris 47.1% to Trump at 43.9% and compared to two weeks ago ...
On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...
Today, 538 is unveiling a new polling average for President Donald Trump's job approval rating. Based on the 11 polls released since his inauguration on Jan. 20, Trump's average approval rating ...
The following head-to-head polls feature some of the individuals who officially declared their candidacies. The incumbent president, Joe Biden , won the Democratic primaries. On July 21, 2024, Biden withdrew from the presidential campaign and endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris , who shortly thereafter became the official nominee of the ...
The persons named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy. The polls included are among Republicans or Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. If multiple versions of polls are provided, the version among likely voters is prioritized, then registered voters, then adults.
On 538's polls page, we note not only the polling firm that conducted the poll, but also (if applicable) the sponsor who paid for it. Oftentimes, these will be partisan groups that are rooting for ...