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In this situation, the event A can be analyzed by a conditional probability with respect to B. If the event of interest is A and the event B is known or assumed to have occurred, "the conditional probability of A given B", or "the probability of A under the condition B", is usually written as P(A|B) [2] or occasionally P B (A).
Conditional probabilities, conditional expectations, and conditional probability distributions are treated on three levels: discrete probabilities, probability density functions, and measure theory. Conditioning leads to a non-random result if the condition is completely specified; otherwise, if the condition is left random, the result of ...
Having found the conditional probability distribution of p given the data, one may then calculate the conditional probability, given the data, that the sun will rise tomorrow. That conditional probability is given by the rule of succession. The plausibility that the sun will rise tomorrow increases with the number of days on which the sun has ...
Given , the Radon-Nikodym theorem implies that there is [3] a -measurable random variable ():, called the conditional probability, such that () = for every , and such a random variable is uniquely defined up to sets of probability zero. A conditional probability is called regular if () is a probability measure on (,) for all a.e.
Independently of Bayes, Pierre-Simon Laplace used conditional probability to formulate the relation of an updated posterior probability from a prior probability, given evidence. He reproduced and extended Bayes's results in 1774, apparently unaware of Bayes's work, in 1774, and summarized his results in Théorie analytique des probabilités (1812).
Bertrand's box paradox: A paradox of conditional probability closely related to the Boy or Girl paradox. Bertrand's paradox: Different common-sense definitions of randomness give quite different results. Birthday paradox: In a random group of only 23 people, there is a better than 50/50 chance two of them have the same birthday.
where is the instance, [] the expectation value, is a class into which an instance is classified, (|) is the conditional probability of label for instance , and () is the 0–1 loss function: L ( x , y ) = 1 − δ x , y = { 0 if x = y 1 if x ≠ y {\displaystyle L(x,y)=1-\delta _{x,y}={\begin{cases}0&{\text{if }}x=y\\1&{\text{if }}x\neq y\end ...
For example, consider the task with coin flipping, but extended to n flips for large n. In the ideal case, given a partial state (a node in the tree), the conditional probability of failure (the label on the node) can be efficiently and exactly computed. (The example above is like this.)