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That's truer than ever in tightly contested national elections, regardless of higher levels of polarization. 538's polling averages and election forecasting model will continue to update with the ...
The UK election was the first time the FiveThirtyEight team did an election night 'liveblog' of a non-U.S. election. [538 37] In April 2010, The Guardian published Silver's predictions for the 2010 United Kingdom General Election. The majority of polling organisations in the UK use the concept of uniform swing to predict the outcome of elections.
If the current polls prove accurate, that would also mark a significant shift leftward for the Tar Heel State. Harris currently leads Trump by 2.8 points in 538's national polling average, so ...
After the conventions, Obama had a clear lead until he did poorly in the first debate. Romney took the lead, and the polls were tied in early and mid-October. The Democrats then regained their momentum but Obama became the first President to win re-election by a narrower margin in both the popular vote and in the Electoral College.
Nate Silver. Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball, basketball, and elections. He is the founder of FiveThirtyEight, and held the position of editor-in-chief there, along with being a special correspondent for ABC News, until May 2023. [2]
Prediction markets can be more accurate than polling when it comes to elections, a professor told Business Insider. There's over $606 million wagered on the 2024 election on Polymarket, favoring a ...
Combined with the re-election victories of his two immediate predecessors, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush , Obama's victory in the 2012 election marked only the second time in American history that three consecutive presidents were each elected to two full terms after the consecutive two-term presidencies of Thomas Jefferson, James Madison ...
The Keys to the White House is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States.It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting prediction methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction.