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If the current polls prove accurate, that would also mark a significant shift leftward for the Tar Heel State. Harris currently leads Trump by 2.8 points in 538's national polling average, so ...
Nate Silver. Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball, basketball, and elections. He is the founder of FiveThirtyEight, and held the position of editor-in-chief there, along with being a special correspondent for ABC News, until May 2023. [2]
Since the 1824 election, the majority of states have chosen their presidential electors based on winner-take-all results in the statewide popular vote on Election Day. [114] As of 2020 [update] , Maine and Nebraska are exceptions as both use the congressional district method , Maine since 1972 and in Nebraska since 1992. [ 115 ]
As of 1 p.m. Eastern, 538 has collected three national polls and one swing-state poll that were conducted since the debate.* In all of them, more people who watched the debate said Harris won the ...
Former senior Obama adviser Dan Pfeiffer said that polling and data experts — far more than most reporters — believe that the campaign fight between former President Trump and Vice President ...
Gallup was the first polling organization to conduct accurate opinion polling for United States presidential elections. [1] Gallup polling has often been accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections and the margin of victory for the winner. [2] However, it missed some close elections: 1948, 1976 and 2004, the popular vote in ...
In CBS's poll of uncommitted voters, 53% felt Obama had won and 22% thought McCain had won, Obama's largest margin of victory of the three debates. [82] A Politico poll of undecided voters, conducted over a 15-minute period following the completion of the presidential debate, showed that 49% felt Obama won, while 46% believed McCain won the debate.
NATALIE BEHRING/AFP via Getty Images. Prediction markets can be more accurate than polling when it comes to elections, a professor told Business Insider. There's over $606 million wagered on the ...