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If Portfolio A has an expected return of 10% and standard deviation of 15%, while portfolio B has a mean return of 8% and a standard deviation of 5%, and the investor is willing to invest in a portfolio that maximizes the probability of a return no lower than 0%: SFRatio(A) = 10 − 0 / 15 = 0.67, SFRatio(B) = 8 − 0 / 5 = 1.6
For example, a 10-year flood has a 1/10 = 0.1 or 10% chance of being exceeded in any one year and a 50-year flood has a 0.02 or 2% chance of being exceeded in any one year. This does not mean that a 100-year flood will happen regularly every 100 years, or only once in 100 years. Despite the connotations of the name "return period".
is the probability of exceedance, the probability that y max has been exceeded at least once by time t. [ 7 ] [ 8 ] This probability can be useful to estimate whether an extreme event will occur during a specified time period, such as the lifespan of a structure or the duration of an operation.
1.4×10 −3: Probability of a human birth giving triplets or higher-order multiples [18] Probability of being dealt a full house in poker 1.9×10 −3: Probability of being dealt a flush in poker 2.7×10 −3: Probability of a random day of the year being your birthday (for all birthdays besides Feb. 29) 4×10 −3: Probability of being dealt ...
An elementary example of a random walk is the random walk on the integer number line which starts at 0, and at each step moves +1 or −1 with equal probability. Other examples include the path traced by a molecule as it travels in a liquid or a gas (see Brownian motion), the search path of a foraging animal, or the price of a fluctuating stock ...
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The principle of maximum caliber (MaxCal) or maximum path entropy principle, suggested by E. T. Jaynes, [1] can be considered as a generalization of the principle of maximum entropy. It postulates that the most unbiased probability distribution of paths is the one that maximizes their Shannon entropy. This entropy of paths is sometimes called ...
Viterbi path and Viterbi algorithm have become standard terms for the application of dynamic programming algorithms to maximization problems involving probabilities. [3] For example, in statistical parsing a dynamic programming algorithm can be used to discover the single most likely context-free derivation (parse) of a string, which is ...