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538’s final forecast for the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is officially out, and it’s a real nail-biter. Our model gives Harris a XXX...
Circles positioned further to the left indicate a higher likelihood of a Harris victory, while circles to the right suggest a stronger chance for Trump. Use the 'DEM' and 'GOP' filters to view...
Live Presidential Forecast. We stopped updating these forecasts at 5:45 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, Nov. 6, after the election was called for Donald Trump. These graphics and estimates will no ...
This is an electoral map based on the Kalshi prediction market odds for the 2024 presidential election. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the market likelihood of winning increases: Toss-up (<60%), Leans (60%+), Likely (80%+), Safe (95%+).
It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter.
2024 President: Consensus Electoral Map. As of November 4, 2024. This map tracks the consensus forecast for the 2024 presidential election. It is a composite of ratings by several forecasters. Only seats rated safe by a large majority of forecasters are shown in the darkest shade of red or blue.
Our prediction model shows the chances Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have of winning the contest to be America's next president.
Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
Our polling averages track the latest trends in the presidential race, using data from national and battleground state polls.
Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.