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In financial economics, the dividend discount model (DDM) is a method of valuing the price of a company's capital stock or business value based on the assertion that intrinsic value is determined by the sum of future cash flows from dividend payments to shareholders, discounted back to their present value.
Key here is the treatment of the long term growth rate, and correspondingly, the forecast period number of years assumed for the company to arrive at this mature stage; see Sustainable growth rate § From a financial perspective and Stock valuation § Growth rate.
is the expected inflation rate g {\displaystyle g} is the real growth rate in earnings (note that by adding real growth and inflation, this is basically identical to just adding nominal growth) Δ S {\displaystyle \Delta S} is the changes in shares outstanding (i.e. increases in shares outstanding decrease expected returns)
However a company may elect to retain a portion of its earnings to produce incremental earnings and/or dividend growth. If the value of both dividends and retained earnings are considered, and the return on equity is equal to the firm's discount rate, the company could be valued by the same function (refer to relationship I):
Also, the perpetuity growth rate assumes that free cash flow will continue to grow at a constant rate into perpetuity. Consider that a perpetuity growth rate exceeding the annualized growth of the S&P 500 and/or the U.S. GDP implies that the company's cash flow will outpace and eventually absorb these rather large values. Perhaps the greatest ...
The geometric average return is equivalent to the cumulative return over the whole n periods, converted into a rate of return per period. Where the individual sub-periods are each equal (say, 1 year), and there is reinvestment of returns, the annualized cumulative return is the geometric average rate of return.
The present value or value, i.e., the hypothetical fair price of a stock according to the Dividend Discount Model, is the sum of the present values of all its dividends in perpetuity. The simplest version of the model assumes constant growth, constant discount rate and constant dividend yield in perpetuity. Then the present value of the stock is
When the dividend payout ratio is the same, the dividend growth rate is equal to the earnings growth rate. Earnings growth rate is a key value that is needed when the Discounted cash flow model, or the Gordon's model is used for stock valuation. The present value is given by: