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  2. Economic forecasting - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_forecasting

    Economic forecasting is the process of making predictions about the economy. Forecasts can be carried out at a high level of aggregation—for example for GDP, inflation, unemployment or the fiscal deficit—or at a more disaggregated level, for specific sectors of the economy or even specific firms.

  3. Temporal difference learning - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temporal_difference_learning

    Temporal difference (TD) learning refers to a class of model-free reinforcement learning methods which learn by bootstrapping from the current estimate of the value function. These methods sample from the environment, like Monte Carlo methods , and perform updates based on current estimates, like dynamic programming methods.

  4. Predictability - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictability

    Examples of US macroeconomic series of interest include but are not limited to Consumption, Investment, Real GNP, and Capital Stock. Factors that are involved in the predictability of an economic system include the range of the forecast (is the forecast two years "out" or twenty) and the variability of estimates.

  5. Don Drummond (economist) - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Drummond_(economist)

    He led TD Economics’ work in analyzing and forecasting economic performance in Canada and abroad. [4] From 2001 until his retirement, he headed government relations for the bank. [5] He was regarded as having transformed the bank's economics department into a "think-tank on topics of national importance". [6]

  6. Quantitative behavioral finance - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_behavioral...

    The attempt to quantify basic biases and to use them in mathematical models is the subject of Quantitative Behavioral Finance. Caginalp and collaborators have used both statistical and mathematical methods on both the world market data and experimental economics data in order to make quantitative predictions.

  7. Survey of Professional Forecasters - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survey_of_Professional...

    SPF has been used in academic research on forecast accuracy and forecast bias. [4] [7] [8] A 1997 analysis of density forecasts of inflation made in the SPF finds: "The probability of a large negative inflation shock is generally overestimated, and in more recent years the probability of a large shock of either sign is overestimated.

  8. Behavioral economics - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_economics

    Behavioral economics is the study of the psychological (e.g. cognitive, behavioral, affective, social) factors involved in the decisions of individuals or institutions, and how these decisions deviate from those implied by traditional economic theory. [1] [2] Behavioral economics is primarily concerned with the bounds of rationality of economic ...

  9. Affective forecasting - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affective_forecasting

    In The Theory of Moral Sentiments (1759), Adam Smith observed the personal challenges, and social benefits, of hedonic forecasting errors: [Consider t]he poor man's son, whom heaven in its anger has visited with ambition, when he begins to look around him, admires the condition of the rich …. and, in order to arrive at it, he devotes himself for ever to the pursuit of wealth and greatness….