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[1] [2] Gallup polling has often been accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections and the margin of victory for the winner. [3] However, it missed some close elections: 1948, 1976 and 2004, the popular vote in 2000, and the likely-voter numbers in 2012. [ 3 ]
The following head-to-head polls feature some of the individuals who officially declared their candidacies. The incumbent president, Joe Biden , won the Democratic primaries. On July 21, 2024, Biden withdrew from the presidential campaign and endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris , who shortly thereafter became the official nominee of the ...
Even in 2012, which stands out as a good year for both polling and election forecasting, the polls missed election outcomes by 3.2 percentage points. At this early juncture, we can only speculate ...
This is a list of nationwide public opinion polls that were conducted relating to the general election for the 2020 United States presidential election. If multiple versions of polls are provided, the version among likely voters (LV) is prioritized, then registered voters (RV), then adults (A). Polling in the 2020 election was considerably less ...
The poll was conducted Nov. 1-4, 2016, ahead of the Nov. 8, 2016, election. It took until 1:30 a.m. the next day for the Associated Press to call the race for Trump . Trump finished with a 9.4 ...
The latest NBC News poll finds President Joe Biden with a job rating of 41% approve, 58% disapprove. By comparison, Trump’s retrospective job rating in the same poll is 48% approve, 51% disapprove.
In September 2014, Silver put into the public domain all of his pollster ratings, [538 6] as well as descriptive summary data for all of the more than 6,600 polls in his data collection for the final three weeks of U.S. presidential primaries and general elections, state governor elections, and U.S. Senate and U.S. Congress elections for the ...
Pollsters likely will cheer this year’s results. This year’s presidential race a was high-stakes proposition for pollsters following their misfires in 2016 and 2020.They collectively ...