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Chart of Democratic-candidate lead over Republican candidate in final poll and results by year, 1936 to 2016. Gallup was the first polling organization to conduct accurate opinion polling for United States presidential elections.
It's completely normal for polls to be off by a few points; since 1998, general-election polls for president, U.S. Senate and governor conducted within 21 days of the election have had a weighted ...
The poll was conducted Nov. 1-4, 2016, ahead of the Nov. 8, 2016, election. It took until 1:30 a.m. the next day for the Associated Press to call the race for Trump . Trump finished with a 9.4 ...
Even in 2012, which stands out as a good year for both polling and election forecasting, the polls missed election outcomes by 3.2 percentage points. At this early juncture, we can only speculate ...
This is a list of nationwide public opinion polls that were conducted relating to the general election for the 2020 United States presidential election. If multiple versions of polls are provided, the version among likely voters (LV) is prioritized, then registered voters (RV), then adults (A). Polling in the 2020 election was considerably less ...
The following head-to-head polls feature some of the individuals who officially declared their candidacies. The incumbent president, Joe Biden , won the Democratic primaries. On July 21, 2024, Biden withdrew from the presidential campaign and endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris , who shortly thereafter became the official nominee of the ...
Presidential election live ... "Trump has historically outperformed polling in both 2016 and 2020 due to his ability to get low propensity voters to show up and win the voters on the fence who ...
In September 2014, Silver put into the public domain all of his pollster ratings, [538 6] as well as descriptive summary data for all of the more than 6,600 polls in his data collection for the final three weeks of U.S. presidential primaries and general elections, state governor elections, and U.S. Senate and U.S. Congress elections for the ...