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[1] [2] Gallup polling has often been accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections and the margin of victory for the winner. [3] However, it missed some close elections: 1948, 1976 and 2004, the popular vote in 2000, and the likely-voter numbers in 2012. [ 3 ]
In September 2014, Silver put into the public domain all of his pollster ratings, [538 6] as well as descriptive summary data for all of the more than 6,600 polls in his data collection for the final three weeks of U.S. presidential primaries and general elections, state governor elections, and U.S. Senate and U.S. Congress elections for the ...
Since then, 19 presidential elections have occurred in which a candidate was elected or reelected without gaining a majority of the popular vote. [4] Since the 1988 election , the popular vote of presidential elections was decided by single-digit margins, the longest streak of close-election results since states began popularly electing ...
The poll was conducted Nov. 1-4, 2016, ahead of the Nov. 8, 2016, election. It took until 1:30 a.m. the next day for the Associated Press to call the race for Trump . Trump finished with a 9.4 ...
It's completely normal for polls to be off by a few points; since 1998, general-election polls for president, U.S. Senate and governor conducted within 21 days of the election have had a weighted ...
2020 presidential election results: Biden beat Trump 49.4% to 49.1% Here are some recent polls taken in Arizona, along with the dates they were conducted, the sample size and the margin of error:
270toWin is an American political website that projects who will win United States presidential, House of Representatives, Senate, and gubernatorial elections and allows users to create their electoral maps. [3] It also tracks the results of United States presidential elections by state throughout the country's history.
Election results are from the Associated Press (AP). Race leads are based on raw vote counts, may change as more votes are counted, and are not predictive of the eventual winner. % estimated votes counted is based on an Associated Press projection of how many total votes will be cast.