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This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state. Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2024 presidential election poll is used. The average methodology is summarized below the table. The default view is Harris vs. Trump head-to-head.
It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter.
UPDATED Oct. 4, 2024, at 2:23 PM. Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? 538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes. Harris wins 55 times...
This map tracks a Harris-Trump electoral vote count for the 2024 presidential election based entirely on polls. No polling is available yet in some less competitive states. In those cases, the Consensus Forecast rating is used. The map automatically updates three times daily. States where the margin is 4% or less are shown as Toss-up.
Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
Who’s ahead in the national polls? Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
Overall, Kamala Harris is ahead of Donald Trump in The New York Times’s average of national polls, while the race remains extraordinarily close in the seven key battleground states. No...
It takes at least 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. Plot each candidate’s best path to victory on our interactive map below.
Trump now has 24 states (and one congressional district in Maine) either solidly in his corner or leaning in his direction, totaling 219 electoral votes, 51 votes short of the 270 required to...
When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here .