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An event tree visually displays all events that occur within a system. It starts off with an initiating event, then branches develop as various consequences of the starting event. These are represented in a number of different paths, each associated with a probability of occurrence.
Reliability engineering is a sub-discipline of systems engineering that emphasizes the ability of equipment to function without failure. Reliability is defined as the probability that a product, system, or service will perform its intended function adequately for a specified period of time, OR will operate in a defined environment without failure. [1]
Event chain methodology is a network analysis technique that is focused on identifying and managing events and relationships between them (event chains) that affect project schedules. It is an uncertainty modeling schedule technique. Event chain methodology is an extension of quantitative project risk analysis with Monte Carlo simulations.
Event tree analysis (ETA) is a forward, top-down, logical modeling technique for both success and failure that explores responses through a single initiating event and lays a path for assessing probabilities of the outcomes and overall system analysis. [1] This analysis technique is used to analyze the effects of functioning or failed systems ...
e. The Delphi method or Delphi technique (/ ˈdɛlfaɪ / DEL-fy; also known as Estimate-Talk-Estimate or ETE) is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method that relies on a panel of experts. [1][2][3][4][5] Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has ...
The Poisson distribution is an appropriate model if the following assumptions are true: k is the number of times an event occurs in an interval and k can take values 0, 1, 2, ... . The occurrence of one event does not affect the probability that a second event will occur. That is, events occur independently.
Sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis is the study of how the uncertainty in the output of a mathematical model or system (numerical or otherwise) can be divided and allocated to different sources of uncertainty in its inputs. [1][2] This involves estimating sensitivity indices that quantify the influence of an input or group of inputs on ...
Words of estimative probability (WEP or WEP s) are terms used by intelligence analysts in the production of analytic reports to convey the likelihood of a future event occurring. A well-chosen WEP gives a decision maker a clear and unambiguous estimate upon which to base a decision. Ineffective WEPs are vague or misleading about the likelihood ...