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For example, if x represents a sequence of coin flips, then the associated Bernoulli sequence is the list of natural numbers or time-points for which the coin toss outcome is heads. So defined, a Bernoulli sequence Z x {\displaystyle \mathbb {Z} ^{x}} is also a random subset of the index set, the natural numbers N {\displaystyle \mathbb {N} } .
It can be used to represent a (possibly biased) coin toss where 1 and 0 would represent "heads" and "tails", respectively, and p would be the probability of the coin landing on heads (or vice versa where 1 would represent tails and p would be the probability of tails). In particular, unfair coins would have /
Next, let r be the actual probability of obtaining heads in a single toss of the coin. This is the property of the coin which is being investigated. Using Bayes' theorem, the posterior probability density of r conditional on h and t is expressed as follows:
The method even gained some literary fame due to the Robert Harris novel Enigma. In the 1990s, Geoffrey Sampson worked with William A. Gale of AT&T to create and implement a simplified and easier-to-use variant of the Good–Turing method [ 3 ] [ 4 ] described below.
Consider a simple statistical model of a coin flip: a single parameter that expresses the "fairness" of the coin. The parameter is the probability that a coin lands heads up ("H") when tossed. can take on any value within the range 0.0 to 1.0. For a perfectly fair coin, =. Imagine flipping a fair coin twice, and observing two heads in two ...
The entropy of the unknown result of the next toss of the coin is maximized if the coin is fair (that is, if heads and tails both have equal probability 1/2). This is the situation of maximum uncertainty as it is most difficult to predict the outcome of the next toss; the result of each toss of the coin delivers one full bit of information.
Graphs of probability P of not observing independent events each of probability p after n Bernoulli trials vs np for various p.Three examples are shown: Blue curve: Throwing a 6-sided die 6 times gives a 33.5% chance that 6 (or any other given number) never turns up; it can be observed that as n increases, the probability of a 1/n-chance event never appearing after n tries rapidly converges to 0.
In probability theory and statistics, a sequence of independent Bernoulli trials with probability 1/2 of success on each trial is metaphorically called a fair coin. One for which the probability is not 1/2 is called a biased or unfair coin. In theoretical studies, the assumption that a coin is fair is often made by referring to an ideal coin.