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[1] [2] A random sequence of events, symbols or steps often has no order and does not follow an intelligible pattern or combination. Individual random events are, by definition, unpredictable, but if there is a known probability distribution, the frequency of different outcomes over repeated events (or "trials") is predictable.
In other words, the deterministic nature of these systems does not make them predictable. [11] [12] This behavior is known as deterministic chaos, or simply chaos. The theory was summarized by Edward Lorenz as: [13] Chaos: When the present determines the future but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future.
The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on a Latin expression which presumed that black swans did not exist. The expression was used until ...
When envisioning few future scenarios, organization may use option valuation models and game theory [12] to shape the decision making of an organization into a goal oriented process involving one or more players [12] and one or more probabilities for different possible scenarios. In this way, it is easier to assess risk and returns through a ...
This phenomenon is known as the butterfly effect, which claims that a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil can cause a tornado in Texas. The nature of chaos theory suggests that the predictability of any system is limited because it is impossible to know all of the minutiae of a system at the present time.
Deming observed that in any forecasting activity, the population is that of future events while the sampling frame is, inevitably, some subset of historical events. Deming held that the disjoint nature of population and sampling frame was inherently problematic once the existence of special-cause variation was admitted, rejecting the general ...
Male pattern baldness (androgenetic alopecia) is a common issue that can happen to men of all ages. It can cause diffuse hair loss across the entire scalp, a receding hairline, a bald patch, or a ...
In this book, routines are defined as regular and predictable firm patterns and the authors proposed that they act like biological genes as they are heritable and selectable by the environment. As such, they provide the basis of the organisation's evolutionary change (e.g. production or implementation) as opposed to knowing how to choose (e.g ...