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In addition, FiveThirtyEight sometimes turned its attention to other topics, such as the economics of blogging, [538 58] the financial ratings by Standard & Poors, [538 59] economists' tendency to underpredict unemployment levels, [538 60] and the economic impact and media coverage of Hurricane Irene (2011). [538 61] [538 62]
These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.
These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.
On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...
Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
Good news, polling fans: 538 now has polling averages for the new presidential matchup between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. As of Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern, our ...
Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer and poker player who analyzes baseball, basketball and elections.He is the founder of FiveThirtyEight and held the position of editor-in-chief there, along with being a special correspondent for ABC News until May 2023. [2]
Obama's average approval ratings stayed above 60 percent through May 2009, and the 2009-10 Congress was one of the most productive in history.) But Trump is already ahead of Obama's pace.