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After an event has occurred, people often believe that they could have predicted or perhaps even known with a high degree of certainty what the outcome of the event would be before it occurred. Hindsight bias may cause distortions of memories of what was known or believed before an event occurred and is a significant source of overconfidence in ...
The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on a Latin expression which presumed that black swans did not exist. The expression was used until ...
Tendency to view past events as being predictable. Also called the "I-knew-it-all-along" effect. Embodied cognition: Tendency to have selectivity in perception, attention, decision making, and motivation based on the biological state of the body. Anchoring bias
In information theory and statistics, negentropy is used as a measure of distance to normality. [4] [5] [6] Out of all distributions with a given mean and variance, the normal or Gaussian distribution is the one with the highest entropy.
Indeterminism is the idea that events (or certain events, or events of certain types) are not caused, or are not caused deterministically. It is the opposite of determinism and related to chance . It is highly relevant to the philosophical problem of free will , particularly in the form of metaphysical libertarianism .
A black swan event, as analyzed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, is an important and inherently unpredictable event that, once occurred, is rationalized with the benefit of hindsight. Another position of the black swan theory is that appropriate preparation for these events is frequently hindered by the pretense of knowledge of all the risks; in other ...
The concept of allostasis, maintaining stability through change, is a fundamental process through which organisms actively adjust to both predictable and unpredictable events... Allostatic load refers to the cumulative cost to the body of allostasis, with allostatic overload... being a state in which serious pathophysiology can occur...
Observer's paradox: The outcome of an event or experiment is influenced by the presence of the observer. Taeuber Paradox : A paradox in demography in which lessening mortality for a particular cause results in a surprisingly small increase in life expectancy and no change in overall mortality.