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Plausible reasoning is defeasible. Plausible reasoning is based on the way things generally go in familiar situations. Plausible reasoning can be used to fill in implicit premises in incomplete arguments. Plausible reasoning is commonly based on appearances from perception. Stability is an important characteristic of plausible reasoning.
Mathematics and Plausible Reasoning is a two-volume book by the mathematician George Pólya describing various methods for being a good guesser of new mathematical results. [ 1 ] [ 2 ] In the Preface to Volume 1 of the book Pólya exhorts all interested students of mathematics thus: "Certainly, let us learn proving, but also let us learn guessing."
Decisions based on economic theories that are not scientifically possible to test can give people a false sense of precision, and that could be misleading, leading to build up logical errors. Natural economics: Economics is concerned with both 'normal' and 'abnormal' economic conditions. In an objective scientific study one is not restricted by ...
The above example commits the correlation-implies-causation fallacy, as it prematurely concludes that sleeping with one's shoes on causes headache. A more plausible explanation is that both are caused by a third factor, in this case going to bed drunk, which thereby gives rise to a correlation. So the conclusion is false. Example 2
Causal analysis is the field of experimental design and statistics pertaining to establishing cause and effect. [1] Typically it involves establishing four elements: correlation, sequence in time (that is, causes must occur before their proposed effect), a plausible physical or information-theoretical mechanism for an observed effect to follow from a possible cause, and eliminating the ...
Mathematical economics is the application of mathematical methods to represent theories and analyze problems in economics.Often, these applied methods are beyond simple geometry, and may include differential and integral calculus, difference and differential equations, matrix algebra, mathematical programming, or other computational methods.
Economic data releases and earnings. ... it's merely a "plausible outcome." ... simple math says that the real policy rate will increase. And that's increasingly what the Fed itself is signaling.
In economics, Knightian uncertainty or ambiguity may occur. Thus, one must make assumptions about the probabilities, but the expected values of various decisions can be very sensitive to the assumptions. This is particularly problematic when the expectation is dominated by rare extreme events, as in a long-tailed distribution.