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Silver said his model is a “direct descendant” of the FiveThirtyEight election forecast. On Sunday, the election guru said that any momentum Trump had in October had “petered out in November.”
Since departing FiveThirtyEight, Silver has been publishing on his Substack blog Silver Bulletin [3] and serves as an advisor to Polymarket. [4] Silver was named one of the world's 100 most influential people by Time in 2009 after his election forecasting model correctly predicted the outcomes in 49 of 50 states in the 2008 U.S. presidential ...
Ahead of the election, G. Elliott Morris, the editorial director of data analytics at ABC News, which publishes FiveThirtyEight, wrote about how either Trump or Harris could win decisively in the ...
During the 2016 election, Silver’s model suggested a likely victory for Hillary Clinton but gave Trump around a 30% chance of winning – much higher than most other prognosticators. Election ...
[538 30] Following a number of preview posts in January [538 31] and February, [538 32] Renard Sexton examined subjects such as the UK polling industry [538 33] [538 34] [538 35] and the 'surge' of the third-party Liberal Democrats, [538 36] while Silver, Sexton and Dan Berman [b] developed a seat projection model. The UK election was the first ...
In March 2020, Morris and The Economist published a forecast for the 2020 U.S. presidential election, the first major model predicting the election's outcome. [6] On August 1, 2020, his model gave Joe Biden an 87 percent chance of winning the election, drawing criticism from Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight who said: "I am not necessarily convinced.
Election savant Nate Silver blasted FiveThirtyEight for suspending its presidential forecasts — offering up a “theory” that the website he founded is waiting for Vice President Kamala Harris ...
These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.