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On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...
Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
Oftentimes, these will be partisan groups that are rooting for a specific candidate to win — or even campaigns themselves. These so-called "internal polls" are indicated on our polls page by ...
USA Today/Suffolk [53] December 26–29, 2023 325 (RV) – 4% 10% – 13% – – 6% – 62%: 5% December 28, 2023 After a ruling by the Secretary of State of Maine Shenna Bellows, Maine became the second state to disqualify former President Donald Trump from its primary ballot under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.
These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.
This article is a collection of statewide opinion polls conducted for the 2024 United States presidential election.The people named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy.
Early voting is getting underway throughout the country, including in key battleground states like Georgia, where more than 300,000 people voted Tuesday, the first day of early voting.
The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated PVI or CPVI, is a measurement of how partisan a U.S. congressional district or U.S. state is. [1] This partisanship is indicated as lean towards either the Republican Party or the Democratic Party, [2] compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections.