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A superforecaster is a person who makes forecasts that can be shown by statistical means to have been consistently more accurate than the general public or experts. . Superforecasters sometimes use modern analytical and statistical methodologies to augment estimates of base rates of events; research finds that such forecasters are typically more accurate than experts in the field who do not ...
On December 6, 2022, TSR released the first early prediction for the 2023 Atlantic season, predicting a slightly below average year with 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. [5] Their updated prediction on April 6, 2023, called for a similar number of hurricanes, but reduced the number of named storms and major hurricanes by ...
Here’s are the U.S. predictions for Christmas Day, 2024. ... check out the 2023-2024 Almanac winter weather preview and the 2024-2025 Winter Forecast and see if they’ve made the right call on ...
The Good Judgment Project (GJP) is an organization dedicated to "harnessing the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events".It was co-created by Philip E. Tetlock (author of Superforecasting and Expert Political Judgment), decision scientist Barbara Mellers, and Don Moore, all professors at the University of Pennsylvania.
The peak of hurricane season is near, and in their most recent update, meteorologists with Colorado State University reiterated that the Atlantic this year will see “above normal” activity.
A Climate Prediction Center forecast for Thanksgiving through December 2 shows an increased potential for precipitation along the East Coast. Rain, snow in the East on Thanksgiving, Black Friday.
The Economist reports that superforecasters are clever (with a good mental attitude), but not necessarily geniuses. It reports on the treasure trove of data coming from The Good Judgment Project, showing that accurately selected amateur forecasters (and the confidence they had in their forecasts) were often more accurately tuned than experts. [1]
HOUSTON (Reuters) -U.S. government forecasters on Thursday said they expect a more dangerous Atlantic storm season than previously projected, raising their Atlantic hurricane outlook due to high ...