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  2. Expectation–maximization algorithm - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expectation–maximization...

    These parameter-estimates are then used to determine the distribution of the latent variables in the next E step. It can be used, for example, to estimate a mixture of gaussians, or to solve the multiple linear regression problem. [2] EM clustering of Old Faithful eruption data. The random initial model (which, due to the different scales of ...

  3. Expected value - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value

    Any definition of expected value may be extended to define an expected value of a multidimensional random variable, i.e. a random vector X. It is defined component by component, as E[X] i = E[X i]. Similarly, one may define the expected value of a random matrix X with components X ij by E[X] ij = E[X ij].

  4. Random walk - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_walk

    An elementary example of a random walk is the random walk on the integer number line which starts at 0, and at each step moves +1 or −1 with equal probability. Other examples include the path traced by a molecule as it travels in a liquid or a gas (see Brownian motion ), the search path of a foraging animal, or the price of a fluctuating ...

  5. Markov chain - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Markov_chain

    In probability theory and statistics, a Markov chain or Markov process is a stochastic process describing a sequence of possible events in which the probability of each event depends only on the state attained in the previous event.

  6. Conditional expectation - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_expectation

    In probability theory, the conditional expectation, conditional expected value, or conditional mean of a random variable is its expected value evaluated with respect to the conditional probability distribution. If the random variable can take on only a finite number of values, the "conditions" are that the variable can only take on a subset of ...

  7. Mean squared prediction error - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_squared_prediction_error

    First, with a data sample of length n, the data analyst may run the regression over only q of the data points (with q < n), holding back the other n – q data points with the specific purpose of using them to compute the estimated model’s MSPE out of sample (i.e., not using data that were used in the model estimation process).

  8. Maximum likelihood estimation - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_likelihood_estimation

    In statistics, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is a method of estimating the parameters of an assumed probability distribution, given some observed data.This is achieved by maximizing a likelihood function so that, under the assumed statistical model, the observed data is most probable.

  9. Martingale (probability theory) - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(probability...

    In probability theory, a martingale is a sequence of random variables (i.e., a stochastic process) for which, at a particular time, the conditional expectation of the next value in the sequence is equal to the present value, regardless of all prior values. Stopped Brownian motion is an example of a martingale. It can model an even coin-toss ...