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Sea ice in the Arctic region has declined in recent decades in area and volume due to climate change. It has been melting more in summer than it refreezes in winter. Global warming, caused by greenhouse gas forcing is responsible for the decline in Arctic sea ice. The decline of sea ice in the Arctic has been accelerating during the early ...
A 2018 paper estimated that an ice-free September would occur once in every 40 years under a global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius, but once in every 8 years under 2 degrees and once in every 1.5 years under 3 degrees. [49] Very high levels of global warming could eventually prevent Arctic sea ice from reforming during the Arctic winter.
A heatwave that would occur once every ten years before global warming started now occurs 2.8 times as often. Under further warming, heatwaves are set to become more frequent. An event that would occur every ten years would occur every other year if global warming reaches 2 °C (3.6 °F). [47] Heat stress is related to temperature. [48]
World leaders are meeting in Paris this month in what amounts to a last-ditch effort to avert the worst ravages of climate change. Climatologists now say that the best case scenario — assuming immediate and dramatic emissions curbs — is that planetary surface temperatures will increase by at least 2 degrees Celsius in the coming decades.
Limiting new black carbon deposits in the Arctic could reduce global warming by 0.2 °C by 2050. [142] The effect of decreasing sulfur content of fuel oil for ships since 2020 [143] is estimated to cause an additional 0.05 °C increase in global mean temperature by 2050. [144]
[130] [131] [132] However the temperature changes in future, the warming of 2000–2019 had already damaged the ice sheet enough for it to eventually lose ~3.3% of its volume. This is leading to 27 cm (10 + 1 ⁄ 2 in) of future sea level rise. [133] At a certain level of global warming, the Greenland ice sheet will almost completely melt.
Temperature and salinity changes due to global warming and climate change alter the ocean density and lead to changes in vertical stratification. [2] The stratified configuration of the ocean can act as a barrier to water mixing, which impacts the efficiency of vertical exchanges of heat, carbon, oxygen, and other constituents.
In general, the volume of permafrost in the upper 3 m of ground is expected to decrease by about 25% per 1 °C (1.8 °F) of global warming, [114]: 1283 yet even under the RCP8.5 scenario associated with over 4 °C (7.2 °F) of global warming by the end of the 21st century, [115] about 5% to 15% of permafrost carbon is expected to be lost "over ...