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Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts to give readers a sense of how probable various electoral outcomes are. These forecasts use a variety of factors to determine the likelihood of each candidate winning each state. Most election predictors use the following ratings: "tossup": no advantage
Statistician Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight maintains a list of pollsters who conduct surveys in U.S. political elections and assigns each pollster a rating based on its methodology and historical accuracy. [9] Silver also lists the number of polls analyzed for each pollster. [9] Cygnal [10] [11] [12] Elway Research; Emerson College Polling [13]
The poll shows California Democrats have rallied around her since her emergence as the party’s nominee, with 81% supporting her and only 11% saying they would prefer another candidate.
The most populous state in the union and one of the most Democratic, California is a deeply blue state that voted Democratic in every presidential election starting in 1992. It did so by double digits in each of them excluding 2004 , when John Kerry won it by 9.95 points .
The poll of 1,297 likely voters, sponsored by NPR and PBS, saw 51% of respondents supporting Harris while 47% supported Trump. The remaining 2% supported a third-party candidate. The remaining 2% ...
But that represents a sharp decline from President Biden's margin in 2020, when exit polls showed he beat Trump 75% to 23% among California Latinos. That new poll jibes with other national and ...
The Berkeley IGS poll was conducted online in English and Spanish Feb. 22-27, among 6,536 California registered voters, including 1,053 Republicans likely to vote in the GOP presidential primary.
The following head-to-head polls feature some of the individuals who officially declared their candidacies. The incumbent president, Joe Biden , won the Democratic primaries. On July 21, 2024, Biden withdrew from the presidential campaign and endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris , who shortly thereafter became the official nominee of the ...