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There are two algebraically equivalent approaches to calculating the Bornhuetter–Ferguson ultimate loss. In the first approach, undeveloped reported (or paid) losses are added directly to expected losses (based on an a priori loss ratio) multiplied by an estimated percent unreported.
The chain-ladder or development [1] method is a prominent [2] [3] actuarial loss reserving technique. The chain-ladder method is used in both the property and casualty [1] [4] and health insurance [5] fields. Its intent is to estimate incurred but not reported claims and project ultimate loss amounts. [5]
Actuarial notation is a shorthand method to allow actuaries to record mathematical formulas that deal with interest rates and life tables. Traditional notation uses a halo system, where symbols are placed as superscript or subscript before or after the main letter. Example notation using the halo system can be seen below.
Let Y be a random variable and X another random variable on the same probability space. The law of total variance can be understood by noting: The law of total variance can be understood by noting: Var ( Y ∣ X ) {\displaystyle \operatorname {Var} (Y\mid X)} measures how much Y varies around its conditional mean E [ Y ∣ X ...
where F X (x) is the cumulative distribution function of the continuous age-at-death random variable, X. As Δx tends to zero, so does this probability in the continuous case. The approximate force of mortality is this probability divided by Δx .
and the future lifetime random variable T(x) therefore follows a uniform distribution on (,). The actuarial notation for conditional probability of failure is = Pr[0 ≤ T(x) ≤ t|T(0) ≥ x]. Under de Moivre's law, the probability that (x) fails to survive to age x+t is
Actuarial credibility describes an approach used by actuaries to improve statistical estimates. Although the approach can be formulated in either a frequentist or Bayesian statistical setting, the latter is often preferred because of the ease of recognizing more than one source of randomness through both "sampling" and "prior" information.
It is generally equal to the actuarial present value of the future cash flows of a contingent event. In the insurance context an actuarial reserve is the present value of the future cash flows of an insurance policy and the total liability of the insurer is the sum of the actuarial reserves for every individual policy.