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This is an important technique for all types of time series analysis, especially for seasonal adjustment. [2] It seeks to construct, from an observed time series, a number of component series (that could be used to reconstruct the original by additions or multiplications) where each of these has a certain characteristic or type of behavior.
In time series data, seasonality refers to the trends that occur at specific regular intervals less than a year, such as weekly, monthly, or quarterly. Seasonality may be caused by various factors, such as weather, vacation, and holidays [1] and consists of periodic, repetitive, and generally regular and predictable patterns in the levels [2] of a time series.
Seasonal adjustment or deseasonalization is a statistical method for removing the seasonal component of a time series.It is usually done when wanting to analyse the trend, and cyclical deviations from trend, of a time series independently of the seasonal components.
The FOT probability of some event associated with the time series is defined to be the fraction of time that event occurs over the lifetime of the time series. In both approaches, the process or time series is said to be cyclostationary if and only if its associated probability distributions vary periodically with time.
A working paper by Robert J. Hodrick titled "An Exploration of Trend-Cycle Decomposition Methodologies in Simulated Data" [10] examines whether the proposed alternative approach of James D. Hamilton is actually better than the HP filter at extracting the cyclical component of several simulated time series calibrated to approximate U.S. real GDP ...
Time series analysis comprises methods for analyzing time series data in order to extract meaningful statistics and other characteristics of the data. Time series forecasting is the use of a model to predict future values based on previously observed values.
X-13ARIMA-SEATS, successor to X-12-ARIMA and X-11, is a set of statistical methods for seasonal adjustment and other descriptive analysis of time series data that are implemented in the U.S. Census Bureau's software package. [3]
Transformations such as logarithms can help to stabilize the variance of a time series. One of the ways for identifying non-stationary times series is the ACF plot. Sometimes, patterns will be more visible in the ACF plot than in the original time series; however, this is not always the case. [6]