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Base rate neglect is a specific form of the more general extension neglect. It is also called the prosecutor's fallacy or defense attorney's fallacy when applied to the results of statistical tests (such as DNA tests) in the context of law proceedings.
The following are forms of extension neglect: Base rate fallacy or base rate neglect, the tendency to ignore general information and focus on information only pertaining to the specific case, even when the general information is more important. [48]
For example, if the control group, using no treatment at all, had their own base rate of 1/20 recoveries within 1 day and a treatment had a 1/100 base rate of recovery within 1 day, we see that the treatment actively decreases the recovery. The base rate is an important concept in statistical inference, particularly in Bayesian statistics. [2]
Base rates may be neglected more often when the information presented is not causal. [17] Base rates are used less if there is relevant individuating information. [18] Groups have been found to neglect base rate more than individuals do. [19] Use of base rates differs based on context. [20]
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Extension neglect [a] is a type of cognitive bias which occurs when the sample size is ignored when its determination is relevant. [1] For instance, when reading an article about a scientific study, extension neglect occurs when the reader ignores the number of people involved in the study (sample size) but still makes inferences about a population based on the sample.
The neglect of probability, a type of cognitive bias, is the tendency to disregard probability when making a decision under uncertainty and is one simple way in which people regularly violate the normative rules for decision making. Small risks are typically either neglected entirely or hugely overrated.
Duration neglect is the psychological observation that people's judgments of the unpleasantness of painful experiences depend very little on the duration of those experiences. Multiple experiments have found that these judgments tend to be affected by two factors: the peak (when the experience was the most painful) and how quickly the pain ...