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When we find fewer than five polls in 2016 or fewer than two polls since July 2016, we use Cook Political Report ratings to estimate where the race stands. We run the simulations out to Election Day, Nov. 8. Since we don’t have polling data for the future, the model assumes voter intentions generally continue along their current trajectories.
Donald Trump won the general election of Tuesday, November 8, 2016. He lost the popular vote but won the electoral college . [ 1 ] [ 2 ] Most polls correctly predicted a popular vote victory for Hillary Clinton , but overestimated the size of her lead, with the result that Trump's electoral college victory was a surprise to analysts.
Chart of Democratic-candidate lead over Republican candidate in final poll and results by year, 1936 to 2016. Gallup was the first polling organization to conduct accurate opinion polling for United States presidential elections.
The only time, other than in 2016, that bettors have missed was in in 1948, when Harry Truman (D) beat eight-to-one odds to defeat Thomas Dewey (R). Election Day is days away.
This is a list of nationwide public opinion polls that were conducted relating to the Republican primaries for the 2016 United States presidential election.The persons named in the polls were either declared candidates, former candidates, or received media speculation about their possible candidacy.
One of those upsets was Trump himself, when he overcame 7/2 odds (22.22 implied win probability) to defeat Hilary Clinton, the Democratic nominee in the 2016 Presidential election.
Donald Trump has hit his highest chance of winning the 2016 election, according to FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver.
This page lists nationwide public opinion polling among demographics that have been conducted relating to the 2016 United States presidential election between prospective Democratic and Republican candidates.