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All 33 Class 1 Senate seats are up for election in 2030; Class 1 currently consists of 14 Republicans, 17 Democrats, and two independents. If vacancies occur in Class 2 or Class 3 Senate seats, that state might require a special election to take place during the 121st Congress, possibly concurrently with the other 2030 Senate elections.
Texas, Florida, Arizona and Idaho are likely to gain House seats after the 2030 census, according to consulting firm Election Data Services. A gain of two congressional seats would be seen in ...
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Labour would win 28 seats in Scotland, jumping from the single constituency returned in 2019, according to the projection. SNP could slip to 19 seats after next election, poll suggests Skip to ...
2. Likely Seat Counts. Finally, we simulate a Nov. 8 election 100 million times using the state-by-state probabilities. The proportion of times Democrats end up with at least 51 seats is the probability of the Democrats gaining control of the Senate. The probability of a tie is the proportion of times the seat count lands at 50-50.
The chart below shows opinion polls conducted since the 2024 general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS). The bar on the left represents the previous election, and the bar on the right represents the latest possible date of the next election.
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1 Ayr: SNP: 0.20 2nd 2 Banffshire and Buchan Coast: SNP: 1.18 2nd 3 Aberdeen South and North Kincardine: SNP: 2.15 2nd 4 Perthshire South and Kinross-shire: SNP: 2.22 2nd 5 Aberdeenshire East: SNP: 2.31 2nd 6 Moray: SNP: 3.87 2nd 7 Angus North and Mearns: SNP: 4.98 2nd