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There are two major types of problems in uncertainty quantification: one is the forward propagation of uncertainty (where the various sources of uncertainty are propagated through the model to predict the overall uncertainty in the system response) and the other is the inverse assessment of model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty (where the ...
There are four sources of uncertainty regarding predictions obtained in this manner: (1) uncertainty as to whether the autoregressive model is the correct model; (2) uncertainty about the accuracy of the forecasted values that are used as lagged values in the right side of the autoregressive equation; (3) uncertainty about the true values of ...
The free energy principle is a theoretical framework suggesting that the brain reduces surprise or uncertainty by making predictions based on internal models and updating them using sensory input. It highlights the brain's objective of aligning its internal model and the external world to enhance prediction accuracy.
Hochreiter developed the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network architecture in his diploma thesis in 1991 leading to the main publication in 1997. [3] [4] LSTM overcomes the problem of numerical instability in training recurrent neural networks (RNNs) that prevents them from learning from long sequences (vanishing or exploding gradient).
Another advantage of Bayesian representations is that they inherently represent uncertainty of parameter values, unlike typical connectionist models that save only a single value for each parameter. The representation of uncertainty can be used to guide active learning in which the learner decides which cases would be most useful to learn about ...
NES then performs a gradient ascent step along the natural gradient, a second order method which, unlike the plain gradient, renormalizes the update with respect to uncertainty. This step is crucial, since it prevents oscillations, premature convergence, and undesired effects stemming from a given parameterization.
More specifically, the signal-detection model, which assumes that memory strength is a graded phenomenon (not a discrete, probabilistic phenomenon) predicts that the ROC will be curvilinear, and because every recognition memory ROC analyzed between 1958 and 1997 was curvilinear, the high-threshold model was abandoned in favor of signal ...
A major advance in memory storage capacity was developed by Dimitry Krotov and Hopfield in 2016 [22] through a change in network dynamics and energy function. This idea was further extended by Demircigil and collaborators in 2017. [23] The continuous dynamics of large memory capacity models was developed in a series of papers between 2016 and 2020.