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For the 2024 Conservative Party leadership election, Electoral Calculus conducted a multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) opinion poll on behalf of Jack Lewy of the Robert Jenrick campaign, asking the general public how they would vote if respectively Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick were elected leader of the Conservatives.
The Conservatives led the polls for the two years following the 2019 general election, which included Brexit, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and vaccine rollout during the leadership of Boris Johnson. Labour took a lead following the Partygate scandal and maintained this through the Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak premierships until the 2024 ...
The 2024 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday, 4 July 2024, to elect 650 members of Parliament to the House of Commons, the lower house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom. The opposition Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer, defeated the governing Conservative Party, led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, in a landslide victory.
Millions of people across the UK will cast their voter today in the country’s first July general election since 1945. The voting open at 7am and close 10pm for 46 million voters eligible to ...
Across the 12 general elections from 1992 to 2024, the site correctly predicted the party to win the most seats in all but one (1992). They also correctly predicted the outcome, that is, the party winning a majority or a hung parliament, in six elections (majorities in 1997, 2001, 2005, 2015, 2017 (by a majority of only 3), 2019, 2024; hung parliament for 2010).
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