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The chain-ladder or development [1] method is a prominent [2] [3] actuarial loss reserving technique. The chain-ladder method is used in both the property and casualty [1] [4] and health insurance [5] fields. Its intent is to estimate incurred but not reported claims and project ultimate loss amounts. [5]
It is primarily used in the property and casualty [5] [9] and health insurance [2] fields. Generally considered a blend of the chain-ladder and expected claims loss reserving methods, [2] [8] [10] the Bornhuetter–Ferguson method uses both reported or paid losses as well as an a priori expected loss ratio to arrive at an ultimate loss estimate.
Actuarial notation is a shorthand method to allow actuaries to record mathematical formulas that deal with interest rates and life tables. Traditional notation uses a halo system, where symbols are placed as superscript or subscript before or after the main letter. Example notation using the halo system can be seen below.
Actuarial credibility describes an approach used by actuaries to improve statistical estimates. Although the approach can be formulated in either a frequentist or Bayesian statistical setting, the latter is often preferred because of the ease of recognizing more than one source of randomness through both "sampling" and "prior" information.
The canonical tail value at risk is the left-tail (large negative values) in some disciplines and the right-tail (large positive values) in other, such as actuarial science.
where F X (x) is the cumulative distribution function of the continuous age-at-death random variable, X. As Δx tends to zero, so does this probability in the continuous case. The approximate force of mortality is this probability divided by Δx.
The number of claims N is a random variable, which is said to have a "claim number distribution", and which can take values 0, 1, 2, .... etc..For the "Panjer recursion", the probability distribution of N has to be a member of the Panjer class, otherwise known as the (a,b,0) class of distributions.
De Moivre's law first appeared in his 1725 Annuities upon Lives, the earliest known example of an actuarial textbook. [6] Despite the name now given to it, de Moivre himself did not consider his law (he called it a "hypothesis") to be a true description of the pattern of human mortality.