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Moving average crossover of a 15-day exponential close-price MA (red) crossing over a 50-day exponential close-price MA (yellow) In the statistics of time series, and in particular the stock market technical analysis, a moving-average crossover occurs when, on plotting two moving averages each based on different degrees of smoothing, the traces of these moving averages cross.
The name suggests this is achieved by applying a double exponential smoothing which is not the case. The name double comes from the fact that the value of an EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is doubled. To keep it in line with the actual data and to remove the lag the value "EMA of EMA" is subtracted from the previously doubled ema.
The idea is do a regular exponential moving average (EMA) calculation but on a de-lagged data instead of doing it on the regular data. Data is de-lagged by removing the data from "lag" days ago thus removing (or attempting to) the cumulative effect of the moving average.
Exponential smoothing or exponential moving average (EMA) is a rule of thumb technique for smoothing time series data using the exponential window function. Whereas in the simple moving average the past observations are weighted equally, exponential functions are used to assign exponentially decreasing weights over time. It is an easily learned ...
An exponential moving average (EMA), also known as an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA), [5] is a first-order infinite impulse response filter that applies weighting factors which decrease exponentially. The weighting for each older datum decreases exponentially, never reaching zero. This formulation is according to Hunter (1986). [6]
In time series analysis, the moving-average model (MA model), also known as moving-average process, is a common approach for modeling univariate time series. [1] [2] The moving-average model specifies that the output variable is cross-correlated with a non-identical to itself random-variable.
Generally the EMA and the re-smoothed EMA of EMA are fairly close, making their ratio is roughly 1 and the sum around 25. According to Dorsey, a so-called "reversal bulge" is a probable signal of trend reversal (regardless of the trend's direction). Such a bulge takes place when a 25-day mass index reaches 27.0 and then falls to below 26 (or 26.5).
A fast EMA responds more quickly than a slow EMA to recent changes in a stock's price. By comparing EMAs of different periods, the MACD series can indicate changes in the trend of a stock. It is claimed that the divergence series can reveal subtle shifts in the stock's trend. Since the MACD is based on moving averages, it is a lagging indicator ...