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After bending the coin, the true probability that the coin will come up heads is unknown; so the experimenter would need to make a decision (perhaps by looking at the shape of the coin) about what prior distribution to use. Incorporation of such subjective information might be important to get an accurate estimate of the probability.
Words of estimative probability (WEP or WEPs) are terms used by intelligence analysts in the production of analytic reports to convey the likelihood of a future event occurring. A well-chosen WEP gives a decision maker a clear and unambiguous estimate upon which to base a decision.
An individual that is risk averse has a certainty equivalent that is smaller than the prediction of uncertain gains. The risk premium is the difference between the expected value and the certainty equivalent. For risk-averse individuals, risk premium is positive, for risk-neutral persons it is zero, and for risk-loving individuals their risk ...
Certainty condition: The median price paid to avoid an electric shock was $19.86. Most participants (24/30) preferred receiving the shock over paying more than $20. Low-probability condition: The median price paid to avoid a 1% chance of a shock was $7, substantially greater than the median price paid to avoid a 1% chance of a $20 penalty.
The certainty effect is the psychological effect resulting from the reduction of probability from certain to probable (Tversky & Kahneman 1986). It is an idea introduced in prospect theory .
This highlights the degree of confusion among scholars about the difference between psychological and analytic confidence. [2] Analysts often lessened certainty statements when confronted with challenging analysis, instead of proscribing a level of analytic confidence to explain those concerns.
While deductive logic allows one to arrive at a conclusion with certainty, inductive logic can only provide a conclusion that is probably true. [non-primary source needed] It is mistaken to frame the difference between deductive and inductive logic as one between general to specific reasoning and specific to general reasoning. This is a common ...
Arthur P. Dempster at the Workshop on Theory of Belief Functions (Brest, 1 April 2010).. The theory of belief functions, also referred to as evidence theory or Dempster–Shafer theory (DST), is a general framework for reasoning with uncertainty, with understood connections to other frameworks such as probability, possibility and imprecise probability theories.
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