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At least Rasmussen and Trafalgar are consistent from the 2016 and 2020 final results. 2016 Wisconsin was decided by 0.8% 2020 by 0.6% 2024 Trafalgar has Trump by 1 and Rasmussen Harris by 1. 2016 Michigan was decided by .03% 2020 by 2.8% 2024 Trafalgar as it a tie and Rasmussen Harris by 1%
So now we have the Trafalgar Group publishing outlier polls saying Trump is doing much better than Biden compared to most other polls. According to The Hill, "...the Trafalgar group weights its polls to account for “social desirability bias,” or the so-called shy Trump voters who are embarrassed to tell pollsters that they support the ...
Originally Posted by john3232 So, let's just say Trump’s strength was not fully accounted for in many polls. I suspect this election it will happen ***2024 Presidential Candidates' Polls*** - Politics and Other Controversies -Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians, Conservatives, Liberals, Third Parties, Left-Wing, Right-Wing, Congress ...
Trafalgar is cooking their polls this cycle to be less Trump favorable without a doubt. I still trust them 6 ways to Sunday over Quinnipiac which has been awful forever 09-18-2024, 01:19 PM
I cannot believe so many people faith in polls after what happened in 2016 with both Trump and Brexit, after the left insisted both would be soundly defeated. That was just a few years ago, but the media needs something to talk about in the 24/7/365 new cycle. The polls have been skewed left at least as far back as 1980, maybe longer.
Trafalgar is cooking their polls this cycle to be less Trump favorable without a doubt. I still trust them 6 ways to Sunday over Quinnipiac which has been awful forever 09-18-2024, 02:19 PM
Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned. Trump wins 51 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election. Biden wins 49 times out of 100. There is a less than 1-in-100.
Polymarket has Trump 64% chance of winning GA to 36% Kamala Harris but you keep being very selective in polls and your opinions. Another sign that Kamala is losing. 10-14-2024, 07:54 AM
Untrue because they are aggregating a bunch of mostly crappy propagandist polls. RCP does include Atlas and Rasmussen, but not Trafalgar or Harris, and they include too many propaganda pushers. Now that the results are in, here are the 4 best by far..in order of best to least best: Atlas Trafalgar Rasmussen Harris #4 is quite a ways behind.
Trafalgar has Trump ahead in Michigan and Pennsylvania and says Trump will win the general election once the "shy" voters weigh in. Is it Does Trafalgar polling have it right again?