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The following list sorts countries and dependent territories by mean age at childbearing.The mean age at childbearing indicates the age of a woman at their childbearing events, if women were subject throughout their lives to the age-specific fertility rates observed in that given year. [1]
World map of birth sex ratios, 2012 The one child policy in China has contributed to the imbalanced sex ratios. Image shows a community bulletin board in Nonguang Village, Sichuan province, China, keeping track of the town's female population, listing recent births by name and noting that several thousand yuan of fines for unauthorized births remain unpaid from the previous year.
Based on this, the UN projected that the world population, 8 billion as of 2023, would peak around the year 2086 at about 10.4 billion, and then start a slow decline, assuming a continuing decrease in the global average fertility rate from 2.5 births per woman during the 2015–2020 period to 1.8 by the year 2100 (the medium-variant projection).
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Don't is a 2012 book by Nate Silver detailing the art of using probability and statistics as applied to real-world circumstances. The book includes case studies from baseball, elections, climate change, the 2008 financial crash , poker, and weather forecasting.
A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that comes true at least in part as a result of a person's belief or expectation that the prediction would come true. [1] In the phenomena, people tend to act the way they have been expected to in order to make the expectations come true. [2]
The Boy or Girl paradox surrounds a set of questions in probability theory, which are also known as The Two Child Problem, [1] Mr. Smith's Children [2] and the Mrs. Smith Problem. The initial formulation of the question dates back to at least 1959, when Martin Gardner featured it in his October 1959 "Mathematical Games column" in Scientific ...
A prediction of this kind might be informed by a predicting person's abductive reasoning, inductive reasoning, deductive reasoning, and experience; and may be useful—if the predicting person is a knowledgeable person in the field. [2] The Delphi method is a technique for eliciting such expert-judgement-based predictions in a controlled way.
Predictive probability of success (PPOS) is a statistics concept commonly used in the pharmaceutical industry including by health authorities to support decision making. In clinical trials , PPOS is the probability of observing a success in the future based on existing data.