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In null-hypothesis significance testing, the p-value [note 1] is the probability of obtaining test results at least as extreme as the result actually observed, under the assumption that the null hypothesis is correct.
[5] [12] The null hypothesis is rejected if the p-value is less than (or equal to) a predetermined level, . is also called the significance level, and is the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis given that it is true (a type I error). It is usually set at or below 5%.
In statistical hypothesis testing, a type I error, or a false positive, is the rejection of the null hypothesis when it is actually true. A type II error, or a false negative, is the failure to reject a null hypothesis that is actually false. [1] Type I error: an innocent person may be convicted. Type II error: a guilty person may be not convicted.
This is the most popular null hypothesis; It is so popular that many statements about significant testing assume such null hypotheses. Rejection of the null hypothesis is not necessarily the real goal of a significance tester. An adequate statistical model may be associated with a failure to reject the null; the model is adjusted until the null ...
The p-value is the probability that a test statistic which is at least as extreme as the one obtained would occur under the null hypothesis. At a significance level of 0.05, a fair coin would be expected to (incorrectly) reject the null hypothesis (that it is fair) in 1 out of 20 tests on average.
Despite the fact that the likelihood ratio in favor of the alternative hypothesis over the null is close to 100, if the hypothesis was implausible, with a prior probability of a real effect being 0.1, even the observation of p = 0.001 would have a false positive rate of 8 percent. It wouldn't even reach the 5 percent level.
On the other hand, if the p value is greater than the chosen alpha level, then the null hypothesis (that the data came from a normally distributed population) can not be rejected (e.g., for an alpha level of .05, a data set with a p value of less than .05 rejects the null hypothesis that the data are from a normally distributed population ...
The smaller the value of p, the greater the evidence for rejecting the null hypothesis; so here the evidence is strong that men and women are not equally likely to be studiers. For a two-tailed test we must also consider tables that are equally extreme, but in the opposite direction. Unfortunately, classification of the tables according to ...