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  2. False positives and false negatives - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_positives_and_false...

    As a consequence, it has been recommended [2] [6] that every p-value should be accompanied by the prior probability of there being a real effect that it would be necessary to assume in order to achieve a false positive risk of 5%. For example, if we observe p = 0.05 in a single experiment, we would have to be 87% certain that there as a real ...

  3. Framing effect (psychology) - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Framing_effect_(psychology)

    The framing effect is a cognitive bias in which people decide between options based on whether the options are presented with positive or negative connotations. [1] Individuals have a tendency to make risk-avoidant choices when options are positively framed, while selecting more loss-avoidant options when presented with a negative frame.

  4. Risk breakdown structure - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_breakdown_structure

    For example, an established project team plans for the work to be done by its staff, but there is the risk that an employee may unexpectedly leave the team. In Project Management, the Risk Management Process has the objectives of identifying, assessing, and managing risks, both positive and negative. All too often, project managers focus only ...

  5. Optimism bias - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimism_bias

    Optimism bias is typically measured through two determinants of risk: absolute risk, where individuals are asked to estimate their likelihood of experiencing a negative event compared to their actual chance of experiencing a negative event (comparison against self), and comparative risk, where individuals are asked to estimate the likelihood of experiencing a negative event (their personal ...

  6. Risk management - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_management

    Negative events can be classified as risks while positive events are classified as opportunities. Risk management standards have been developed by various institutions, including the Project Management Institute , the National Institute of Standards and Technology , actuarial societies, and International Organization for Standardization .

  7. Positive and negative predictive values - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_and_negative...

    The positive predictive value (PPV), or precision, is defined as = + = where a "true positive" is the event that the test makes a positive prediction, and the subject has a positive result under the gold standard, and a "false positive" is the event that the test makes a positive prediction, and the subject has a negative result under the gold standard.

  8. Risk - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk

    Firefighters are exposed to risks of fire and building collapse during their work.. In simple terms, risk is the possibility of something bad happening. [1] Risk involves uncertainty about the effects/implications of an activity with respect to something that humans value (such as health, well-being, wealth, property or the environment), often focusing on negative, undesirable consequences. [2]

  9. Availability heuristic - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic

    Outcome Availability – availability of positive and negative investment outcomes, and; Risk Availability – availability of financial risk. [19] On days of substantial stock market moves, abnormal stock price reactions to upgrades are weaker, than those to downgrades. These availability effects are still significant even after controlling ...