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Decimal odds are a single value, greater than 1, representing the amount to be paid out for each unit bet. For example, a bet of £40 at 6 − 4 (fractional odds) will pay out £40 + £60 = £100. The equivalent decimal odds are 2.5; £40 × 2.5 = £100. We can convert fractional to decimal odds by the formula D = (b + a) ⁄ b.
The name Log5 is due to Bill James [1] but the method of using odds ratios in this way dates back much farther. This is in effect a logistic rating model and is therefore equivalent to the Bradley–Terry model used for paired comparisons , the Elo rating system used in chess and the Rasch model used in the analysis of categorical data.
If the final adjusted score is a tie, the bet is considered a push. The half point at the end is sometimes added to eliminate the possibility of a push. This is the most common type of bet in American sports betting. Total (Over/Under) bets are wagers made based on the total score between both teams. In an example, if an MLB game has a total of ...
Behind the betting windows at Ascot racetrack, Australia February 1939. An automatic totalisator is a device to add up the bets in a pari-mutuel betting system. The whole of the pot (the stakes on all competitors) is divided pro rata to the stakes placed on the winning competitor, and those tickets are paid out.
Parlay bets are paid out at odds higher than the typical single game bet, but still below the "true" odds. For instance, a common two-team NFL parlay based entirely on the spread generally has a payout of 2.64:1. In reality, however, if one assumes that each single game bet is 50/50, the true payout should instead be 3:1.
Fixed-odds betting is a form of gambling where individuals place bets on the outcome of an event, such as sports matches or horse races, at predetermined odds. In fixed-odds betting, the odds are fixed and determined at the time of placing the bet. These odds reflect the likelihood of a particular outcome occurring. If the bettor's prediction ...
The parimutuel calculation results might call for a very small winning payout (say, $1.02 or $1.03 on a dollar bet), but legal regulations might require a larger payout (e.g., minimum $1.10 on a dollar bet). [4] This condition is sometimes referred to as a minus pool.
Example of the optimal Kelly betting fraction, versus expected return of other fractional bets. In probability theory, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet) is a formula for sizing a sequence of bets by maximizing the long-term expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the long-term expected geometric growth rate.