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As of Oct. 30 at 11:30 a.m. Eastern, the margin between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump in 538's polling averages is smaller than 4 points in seven states: the familiar septet of Arizona ...
PHOTO: 538's national polling average of the presidential election as of Sept. 17, 2024 at 9 a.m. Eastern. (538 photo illustration)
Without this adjustment, Harris and Trump would be tied at 44.0 percent nationally (based on polls conducted since July 22 and released by Aug. 1). But Harris's margin is about 0.2 points higher ...
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Kamala Harris Democratic Donald Trump Republican Others/ Undecided [a]Margin 270toWin [1]: through November 4, 2024
The result is that Harris would win with 270 electoral votes. (Amina Brown for 538.) According to the Swing-O-Matic, if Harris improves upon Biden’s margin among white voters by only 2-3 points ...
The final prediction by FiveThirtyEight on the morning of election day (November 8, 2016) had Hillary Clinton with a 71% chance to win the 2016 United States presidential election, [69] while other major forecasters had predicted Clinton to win with at least an 85% to 99% probability.
A YouGov/Economist poll has Harris with a three-point lead among registered voters, at 47 percent and Trump at 44 percent. The poll shows a wide 25-point margin for Harris among young voters, aged ...
A separate Washington Post/Schar School megapoll (of 5,000 registered voters) has Harris just 1 point ahead of Trump. Harris has 49 percent of the vote and Trump 48 percent, according to the poll ...