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The Keys to the White House, also known as the 13 keys, is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States.It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction.
After predicting the winners of the previous five elections, The Literary Digest (based on cards mailed in by its readers) predicted that Alf Landon would win by a large margin. George Gallup predicted a Roosevelt win, based on statistical random sampling within 1.1 percent of the Literary Digest results.
Using his system, Lichtman has correctly predicted nine of 11 presidential elections since 1984. His first blemish came when Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore in the 2000 election.
In the final update of his presidential forecast model at midday of November 4, 2008, Silver projected a popular vote victory by 6.1 percentage points for Barack Obama and electoral vote totals of 349 (based on a probabilistic projection) or 353 (based on fixed projections of each state). [538 12] Obama won with 365 electoral college votes.
Off-target predictions about U.S. presidential races have been abundant in recent election cycles. ... He announced Kerry would win the Electoral College with no fewer than 311 votes and carry ...
The United States presidential election of 2008 was sponsored by the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD), a bipartisan organization that sponsored four debates that occurred at various locations around the United States (U.S.) in September and October 2008. Three of the debates involved the presidential nominees, and one involved the vice ...
Statewide public opinion polls that were conducted relating to the 2008 United States presidential election are as ... [90] | July 17 39% 52%: 13 500 LV ±4.5% June ...
August 4–6, 2008 47%: 46% 1 3,000 LV ±2% The Economist/Polimetrix/YouGov [203] August 4–6, 2008 42%: 39% 3 922 RV Not reported CBS News [204] July 31–August 5, 2008 45%: 39% 6 851 RV Not reported Gallup (Daily Tracking) [205] August 2–4, 2008 47%: 43% 4 2,674 RV ±2% Associated Press/Ipsos [206] July 31–August 4, 2008 48%: 42% 6 833 ...