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Nationwide public opinion polls that were conducted relating to the 2012 United States presidential election are as follows. The election was between Democratic Incumbent President Barack Obama, Republican Mitt Romney, as well as other third-party and independent challengers.
In terms of exit polls, Obama performed roughly as expected. He won both women and men 68 to 31 and 58 to 42, respectively, and won Black voters 94 to 5 and Hispanic voters 89 to 11. These ethnic groups collectively make up 54.6% of New York City's population, and thus hold great influence in state elections.
However, it missed some close elections: 1948, 1976 and 2004, the popular vote in 2000, and the likely-voter numbers in 2012. [3] The month section in the tables represents the month in which the opinion poll was conducted. D represents the Democratic Party, and R represents the Republican Party.
Close elections always come down to turnout. ... so hard — and it’s one of the big reasons why there’s variation in polls before elections. The NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters, 898 ...
Voter turnout in the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election by race/ethnicity. Race and ethnicity has had an effect on voter turnout in recent years, with data from recent elections such as 2008 showing much lower turnout among people identifying as Hispanic or Asian ethnicity than other voters (see chart to the right).
Traditionally, only half of eligible Hispanic voters vote (around 7% of voters); of them, 71% voted for Barack Obama (increasing his percentage of the vote by 5%); therefore, the Hispanic vote was an important factor in Obama's re-election, since the vote difference between the two main parties was only 3.9% [142] [143] [144] [145]
In January and February 2012, both candidates were neck and neck with neither having a decisive lead. In March, Obama was able to pull ahead and beat Romney in most polls until about late September 2012. On October 4, Romney won his first poll in a month, 48% to 45%. Throughout October, Romney won every poll but one for nearly three weeks.
According to NBC, a News21 analysis of 2,068 instances of alleged fraud nationwide during the elections between 2000 and 2012 pinpointed just 10 cases of voter impersonation in a pool of about 146 ...