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In psychometrics, predictive validity is the extent to which a score on a scale or test predicts scores on some criterion measure. [1] [2]For example, the validity of a cognitive test for job performance is the correlation between test scores and, for example, supervisor performance ratings.
Predictive validity refers to the degree to which the operationalization can predict (or correlate with) other measures of the same construct that are measured at some time in the future. Again, with the selection test example, this would mean that the tests are administered to applicants, all applicants are hired, their performance is reviewed ...
The positive predictive value (PPV), or precision, is defined as = + = where a "true positive" is the event that the test makes a positive prediction, and the subject has a positive result under the gold standard, and a "false positive" is the event that the test makes a positive prediction, and the subject has a negative result under the gold standard.
When the criterion measure is collected at the same time as the measure being validated the goal is to establish concurrent validity; when the criterion is collected later the goal is to establish predictive validity. A measure has construct validity if it is related to measures of other constructs as required by theory.
Although concurrent and predictive validity are similar, it is cautioned to keep the terms and findings separated. "Concurrent validity should not be used as a substitute for predictive validity without an appropriate supporting rationale." [3] Criterion validity is typically assessed by comparison with a gold standard test. [4]
The predictive validity of g is greater than that of work experience, and increased experience on the job does not decrease the validity of g. [64] [75] In a 2011 meta-analysis, researchers found that general cognitive ability (GCA) predicted job performance better than personality (Five factor model) and three streams of emotional intelligence.
ADT, for example, uses predictive intelligence to identify potential security risks before they happen, ensuring a safer home environment. ... This data is used to determine the validity of alarms ...
Many psychologists and education researchers saw "predictive, concurrent, and content validities as essentially ad hoc, construct validity was the whole of validity from a scientific point of view" [15] In the 1974 version of The Standards for Educational and Psychological Testing the inter-relatedness of the three different aspects of validity ...