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Prospect theory is a theory of behavioral economics, judgment and decision making that was developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979. [1] The theory was cited in the decision to award Kahneman the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics .
In prospect theory, the pseudocertainty effect is the tendency for people to perceive an outcome as certain while it is actually uncertain in multi-stage decision making. The evaluation of the certainty of the outcome in a previous stage of decisions is disregarded when selecting an option in subsequent stages.
Reference dependence is a central principle in prospect theory and behavioral economics generally. It holds that people evaluate outcomes and express preferences relative to an existing reference point, or status quo. It is related to loss aversion and the endowment effect. [1] [2]
The main modification to prospect theory is that, as in rank-dependent expected utility theory, cumulative probabilities are transformed, rather than the probabilities themselves. This leads to the aforementioned overweighting of extreme events which occur with small probability, rather than to an overweighting of all small probability events.
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In 1979, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky traced the cause of the disposition effect to the so-called "prospect theory". [3] The prospect theory proposes that when an individual is presented with two equal choices, one having possible gains and the other with possible losses, the individual is more likely to opt for the former choice even ...
Gain and loss are defined in the scenario as descriptions of outcomes, for example, lives lost or saved, patients treated or not treated, monetary gains or losses. [ 2 ] Prospect theory posits that a loss is more significant than the equivalent gain, [ 2 ] that a sure gain ( certainty effect and pseudocertainty effect ) is favored over a ...
The concept of framing is adopted in prospect theory, which is commonly used by mental accounting theorists as the value function in their analysis (Richard Thaler Included [12]). In Prospect Theory, the value function is concave for gains (implying an aversion to risk ), indicating decreasing marginal utility with accumulation of gain.