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Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the science of quantitative characterization and estimation of uncertainties in both computational and real world applications. It tries to determine how likely certain outcomes are if some aspects of the system are not exactly known.
Jessica Hullman has published peer-reviewed journal articles on topics including uncertainty visualization, Bayesian cognition, human-AI interaction, decision-making under uncertainty, and evaluation of visualizations. Her work has contributed new visualization types to help readers develop an intuitive sense of uncertainty, such as ...
Conformal prediction (CP) is a machine learning framework for uncertainty quantification that produces statistically valid prediction regions (prediction intervals) for any underlying point predictor (whether statistical, machine, or deep learning) only assuming exchangeability of the data. CP works by computing nonconformity scores on ...
Identify the model output to be analysed (the target of interest should ideally have a direct relation to the problem tackled by the model). Run the model a number of times using some design of experiments, [15] dictated by the method of choice and the input uncertainty. Using the resulting model outputs, calculate the sensitivity measures of ...
They can also be used to model phenomena with significant uncertainty in inputs, such as calculating the risk of a nuclear power plant failure. Monte Carlo methods are often implemented using computer simulations, and they can provide approximate solutions to problems that are otherwise intractable or too complex to analyze mathematically.
In physical experiments uncertainty analysis, or experimental uncertainty assessment, deals with assessing the uncertainty in a measurement.An experiment designed to determine an effect, demonstrate a law, or estimate the numerical value of a physical variable will be affected by errors due to instrumentation, methodology, presence of confounding effects and so on.
In the 1980s, researchers from cognitive science (e.g., Judea Pearl), computer science (e.g., Peter C. Cheeseman and Lotfi Zadeh), decision analysis (e.g., Ross Shachter), medicine (e.g., David Heckerman and Gregory Cooper), mathematics and statistics (e.g., Neapolitan, Tod Levitt, and David Spiegelhalter) and philosophy (e.g., Henry Kyburg) met at the newly formed Workshop on Uncertainty in ...
Stochastic forensics analyzes computer crime by viewing computers as stochastic steps. In artificial intelligence, stochastic programs work by using probabilistic methods to solve problems, as in simulated annealing, stochastic neural networks, stochastic optimization, genetic algorithms, and genetic programming. A problem itself may be ...