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Two wrongs make a right – assuming that, if one wrong is committed, another wrong will rectify it. [113] Vacuous truth – a claim that is technically true but meaningless, in the form no A in B has C, when there is no A in B. For example, claiming that no mobile phones in the room are on when there are no mobile phones in the room.
Sleeping Beauty problem: A probability problem that can be correctly answered as one half or one third depending on how the question is approached. Three Prisoners problem, also known as the Three Prisoners paradox: [3] A variation of the Monty Hall problem.
An example of double counting is shown starting with the question: What is the probability of seeing at least one 5 when throwing a pair of dice? An erroneous argument goes as follows: The first die shows a 5 with probability 1/6, and the second die shows a 5 with probability 1/6; therefore, the probability of seeing a 5 on at least one of the ...
Overconfidence effect, a tendency to have excessive confidence in one's own answers to questions. For example, for certain types of questions, answers that people rate as "99% certain" turn out to be wrong 40% of the time. [5] [44] [45] [46] Planning fallacy, the tendency for people to underestimate the time it will take them to complete a ...
Pages in category "Probability theory paradoxes" The following 21 pages are in this category, out of 21 total. This list may not reflect recent changes. 0–9.
Confusion of the inverse, also called the conditional probability fallacy or the inverse fallacy, is a logical fallacy whereupon a conditional probability is equated with its inverse; that is, given two events A and B, the probability of A happening given that B has happened is assumed to be about the same as the probability of B given A, when there is actually no evidence for this assumption.
The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that, if an event (whose occurrences are independent and identically distributed) has occurred less frequently than expected, it is more likely to happen again in the future (or vice versa).
A seemingly simple question about the number of words in the English language immediately encounters questions about archaic forms, accounting for prefixes and suffixes, multiple definitions of a word, variant spellings, dialects, fanciful creations (like ectoplastistics from ectoplasm and statistics), [10] technical vocabulary, and so on.
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