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The Earth's orbit varies between nearly circular and mildly elliptical (its eccentricity varies). When the orbit is more elongated, there is more variation in the distance between the Earth and the Sun, and in the amount of solar radiation, at different times in the year.
Orbital forcing is the effect on climate of slow changes in the tilt of the Earth's axis and shape of the Earth's orbit around the Sun (see Milankovitch cycles).These orbital changes modify the total amount of sunlight reaching the Earth by up to 25% at mid-latitudes (from 400 to 500 W/(m 2) at latitudes of 60 degrees).
δ 18 O, a proxy for temperature, for the last 600,000 years (an average from several deep sea sediment carbonate samples) [a]. The 100,000-year problem (also 100 ky problem or 100 ka problem) of the Milankovitch theory of orbital forcing refers to a discrepancy between the reconstructed geologic temperature record and the reconstructed amount of incoming solar radiation, or insolation over ...
Ignoring the influence of other Solar System bodies, Earth's orbit, also called Earth's revolution, is an ellipse with the Earth–Sun barycenter as one focus with a current eccentricity of 0.0167. Since this value is close to zero, the center of the orbit is relatively close to the center of the Sun (relative to the size of the orbit).
A value of 0 is a circular orbit, values between 0 and 1 form an elliptic orbit, 1 is a parabolic escape orbit (or capture orbit), and greater than 1 is a hyperbola. The term derives its name from the parameters of conic sections , as every Kepler orbit is a conic section.
Climate models divide the planet into a 3-dimensional grid and apply differential equations to each grid. The equations are based on the basic laws of physics, fluid motion, and chemistry. Numerical climate models (or climate system models) are mathematical models that can simulate the interactions of important drivers of climate.
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[13] [14] Similarly, Earth has an effective temperature of 255 K (−18 °C; −1 °F), [14] but a surface temperature of about 288 K (15 °C; 59 °F) [15] due to the greenhouse effect in our lower atmosphere. [5] [4] The surface temperatures of such planets are more accurately estimated by modeling thermal radiation transport through the ...