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This recession was one of the main causes of the American Civil War, which would begin in 1861 and end in 1865. This is the earliest recession to which the NBER assigns specific months (rather than years) for the peak and trough. [6] [8] [21] 1860–1861 recession October 1860 – June 1861 8 months 1 year 10 months −14.5% —
The listed dates and durations are from the official chronology of the National Bureau of Economic Research. [1] The National Bureau of Economic Research dates expansions on a monthly basis. From the trough of the recession of 1945 to the late-2000s recession, there have been eleven periods of expansion, lasting an average of fifty-nine months. [1]
In contrast, the NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales". [13] Business cycle dates are determined by the NBER dating committee.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)'s Business Cycle Dating Committee, a group of professors that officially decides the beginning and end of recessions, says it's not yet ready to ...
The reference dates of the United States' business cycles are determined by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which looks at various coincident indicators such as real GDP, real personal income, employment, and sales to make informative judgments on when to set the historical dates of the peaks and troughs of past business cycles.
The NBER also explains that: "a recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its through." [ 17 ] The NBER is considered the official arbiter of recession start and end dates for the United States.
The NBER officially calls U.S. recessions, and data from Bank of America shows why this group won't be in a rush to declare the U.S. economy in recession.
In fact, the recession ended before the NBER determined that a recession had begun. Still, that recession cut deep, with the unemployment rating hitting 14.8% as 22 million jobs were slashed.